Handicapping the News 06.01.12

You guys better appreciate this column. I’m sitting down and writing this instead of reading The Walking Dead and America’s Got Powers. It’s an exercise in self control just to be sitting here at the keyboard typing away when I’ve got perfectly good comic books to be reading. And I could be reading them on my back porch with a cigar in hand, at that! For those of you that are (and those that aren’t) cigar afficionados out there, I recommend Kuba Kuba by Acid.

This beauty from the Drew Estate has been rated a 90 by Cigar Aficionado, which is pretty exceptional for a cigar that runs between $10 and $14. It’s sweet, burns evenly, and smells fantastic. If you enjoy cigars at all, I highly recommend these. Now, you probably didn’t come here to learn more about my self destructive and potentially cancer inducing habits. You’re here to read what I have to say about wrestling headlines, then tell me how much you hate me!

Before we introduce this week’s reader spotlight, I’d like to announce that beginning next week and for the next month, you’ll have the chance to actually win something for being in the Reader Spotlight. What’s the prize? Tune in next week to find out. It’s nothing of great value, but for true wrestling fans could be invaluable.

This week’s reader spotlight goes to themecca.

themecca says
TNA had the making of a star in their hands, WWE had a super established mega star who could lose every ppv match for a year and not lose his very loyal fan base get screwed by a giant in a situation everyone saw coming. I saw Lockdown and was actively rooting for Storm and loudly and when Roode stood up by the cage door, I saw what was coming and was in hopeful denial that it wouldn’t go down like it did. now, Lockdown is a big show for TNA and so is Slammiversary. if they put the strap on Storm at Slammiversary it might still be ok. also at Lockdown we had the Knockouts title defended and we had mega heel vs fan favorite and Velvet also fell short of reclaiming the gold a lot of us feel she has earned a good little run with. 0 title changes at lock down had everyone believing even more that the title change was a sure thing. also TNA had been doing so much right up till Lockdown, Storm winning would have turned a good ppv into a great ppv. WWE is coasting on the fact they are WWE and while they are good, they aren’t going thru the upsurge in awesomeness TNA was in april

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again – the people that are upset with Storm not winning the title at Lockdown never would have survived the 1980’s NWA. All the times that Sting, Lex Luger, and Barry Windham almost beat Ric Flair would have sent people into an absolute frenzy if the internet existed back then. And my God, had the internet existed during Bruno Sammartino’s 7 year reign, the IWC would have probably committed homicide on behalf of every “cool” heel in the sport back then. That’s why I enjoy Robert Roode’s reign in TNA right now – it feels old school. As it progresses, it’s starting to feel like he’s just barely slipping by with every match and while it’s frustrating, it’s going to make it that much more enjoyable when somebody finally gets him dead to rights.

All of that is notwithstanding the fact that physically, James Storm couldn’t win the championship. He needed time off to heal nagging injuries, which nobody knew or would even consider at the time. Now, when we look at Over the Limit, Cena and Lauranitis were part of a story that had just begun in one sense. And while you’re correct, Cena is a megastar and losing to Lauranitis won’t hurt him like Storm’s loss theoretically hurts him, people are ready to see John Lauranitis get beat up. He’s landing in that “Michael Cole heat” zone where people don’t care who does it, they just want to see it done.

TNA had been doing a lot of stuff right up through Lockdown, they were also stumbling along the way a bit. Personally, I think that’s where they still are, but I’m excited to see what happens with their live era of Impact through the summer. Hopefully it can help them get some upward momentum going. The more success that more wrestling promotions have, the better off all fans will be.

Brock Lesnar was in attendance at UFC 146, which featured a main event that included Brock’s old nemesis, Frank Mir. He allegedly sent out a text to Dana White that said he’d be there for the show, but to keep it quiet because he wanted to meet up with him. Once folks got wind of Brock’s attendance, rumors ran wild. People were shocked. Was Brock finally heading back to the UFC after six long months of retirement? Was Brock in on the joke, and just skipping from one hobby to the next as quickly as possible? Was he just hanging out with Dana? All were valid questions, and Dana White himself threw some fuel on the fire when he added that he felt like Brock was still probably a top 5 heavyweight, and hinted that he felt Brock could easily be a legitimate WWE and UFC star at the same time. Is Brock really going to try to pull off a King Mo Lawal? Was he just drumming up publicity? Did the media make something out of nothing? Let’s gaze into the crystal ball to see what could play out.

Brock ditches WWE for UFC: 500 to 1
All joking aside, Brock operates like a rich kid with ADD. His attention span is short and he has the means to go from one thing to the next when it grabs his attention or he gets bored. The thing is, he’s not going to walk away from the 7 figure deal that WWE signed him to that essentially calls for him to “work” for one month this year…total. No matter how much Dana White can offer him to resume his UFC career, it’s not going to be enough to get Brock to give up the paycheck he’s already been promised.

Brock pulls double duty: 40 to 1
This is a complicated scenario for multiple reasons. I guess that sentence was kind of redundant. If there were only reason, it wouldn’t be very complicated, would it? Anyway, you have the whole medical issue with Brock Lesnar. To hear his fans and other MMA “experts” tell it, the surgery that followed the earth shattering tummy ache that Brock Lesnar suffered is the whole reason that he lost his last two fights. See, any kick or punch that lands solidly to Brock’s stomach could now potentially damage his organs to the point that it is life threatening. In focusing on protecting his body, Brock was susceptible to being punched in the face a lot. If you’ve read this column, you know I don’t place a great deal of faith in the interpretation of Brock’s illnesses that have been purveyed around message boards and training camps. In watching boxing for the better part of 15 years, I’ve learned that 99% of guys have one excuse or another for losing. Bad training camp, nagging injury that they failed to mention before, whatever. Guys are rarely hurt when they win, though. It’s amazing.

Beyond the medical issues that would complicate matters for the Brocktopus returning to MMA, there’s the whole thing where he’s under a huge contract to WWE. For that reason, Vince McMahon would almost certainly get some sort of input on when Brock would fight. Why? Because on the off chance that he gets severely injured – I’m talking broken arm, separated shoulder, blown ACL or MCL type stuff here – he can’t be missing something like the Royal Rumble or Wrestlemania to recover. Vince has Brock for a finite number of dates, and can’t afford to have any of them rescheduled due to an injury suffered in a legit fight. If you really think that two type A personalities like Dana White and Vince McMahon are going to be able to cooperate on scheduling a guy that is a top 3 draw for both companies, you don’t know a great deal about psychology.

Brock loses interest in both, walks away to take up skateboarding in order to compete at the X Games: 15 to 1
It’s possible, but he’d likely just withdraw halfway through his event with a case of near fatal shingles.

During a recent tour of South America, Chris Jericho went the JBL/Germany route and went for some nationalistic cheap heat by kicking Brazil’s flag. Little did Jericho know that such an act would result in a near incarceration, much less a month long suspension. His suspension drew comments and support from around the wrestling community from folks such as Shawn Michaels, Lance Storm, and Jim Ross. It’s certainly not the worst thing that any heel has ever done in an attempt to incite a crowd, but there’s an inherent value in knowing your audience. I don’t fault Jericho for not being up on the laws regarding the Brazilian flag. After all, if JBL goose stepping in Germany or Michaels shoving the Canadian flag up his nose didn’t cause international incidents, who would think that booting a flag would? However, with CM Punk bringing the flag to the ring with him, you’d think that someone on the WWE staff would have made some inquiries to find out what would and wouldn’t be allowed as far as Jericho interacting with the flag. They didn’t, though, and as a result, Chris Jericho is now counting down the days to his return to WWE on Twitter, and proving that he’s the most entertaining guy in the business by a few miles. Ramifications of this little foreign faux pas?

WWE hires a Brazilian wrestler for their next tour: 12 to 1
I can see it now. One of the Gracie family members shows up on Raw wearing a gi and makes whoever the WWE Champion at the time is tap out about three weeks before WWE heads to South America. But seriously, Alberto Del Rio was ready to be WWE Champion and it had nothing to do with an upcoming tour of Mexico. Really.

A changing of the guard begins: 3 to 1
Almost a guarantee. Look at the position WWE is currently in. They’re rationing dates for Brock’s contract. Jericho is suspended. Orton is suspended. Misterio is suspended/injured. Some of these are more long term problems than others, but they’ve still got at least a month of television and pay per view time to fill without these guys. It will provide an opportunity through necessity for guys like Daniel Bryan, CM Punk, and Sheamus to prove they can carry the ball, as well as for guys like Christian, Cody Rhodes, Dolph Ziggler, and others to step up and force fans and WWE decision makers alike to acknowledge them. Or we may just get a lot of Kane, Big Show, and John Cena.

Jericho returns as fun loving, over the top, face Jericho to feud with Ziggler: 250 to 1
I love Jericho as a heel. Hell, I love Jericho. I’ve been a confirmed Jerichoholic since 1996. As much fun as Jericho has been as a heel, I miss the Jericho of old, that yelled ridiculous insults at people and acted like a rock star. Sadly, I don’t think we’ll get that Jericho back. He prides himself far too much on reinventing himself and not retreading old incarnations of himself. I’ll keep hoping, though.

These are the jokes. They can’t all be winners, folks. Former WWE Diva Jillian Hall was arrested on April 23rd for domestic violence. A month later, her mugshot was released, and it was the first I heard about the incident. Maybe I’m behind on the news here, but digging into this seems like a somewhat more worthwhile venture than simply posting random pictures. Then again, you’d probably just rather look at the pictures. Oh well, we’ve made it this far. May as well soldier on. I promise it’ll be over relatively quickly. The mugshot released of Ms. Hall was less than flattering, but it does make her look like a much more convincing ass beater. The charges brought against her are actually battery charges. Battery basically consists of somebody touching another person in an aggressive, unwanted manner. The fact that she was arrested doesn’t mean that she beat her now ex husband bloody or anything, but it certainly doesn’t preclude that from happening, either. What can we expect to hear from Ms. Hall next?

Increased indy bookings with this bit of news coming out: 15 to 1
Wrestling promoters, both big and small time, are shameless as all hell. If you think they’re above booking any wrestler that just made the news for any reason (other than how Chris Benoit did it) if they think it’ll sell tickets, you’re more wrong than the scientists that pretend global warming is real.

A trip to CHIKARA to pretend to beat up men instead of beating them up for real: 75 to 1
I don’t want to make light of the situation, because a lot of men are victims of domestic abuse on a regular basis; we don’t know the full extent of what happened or why charges were filed. This could be a preemptive measure by her ex husband in order to garner sympathy in divorce court. And really, while Ms. Hall certainly isn’t the worst women’s wrestler I’ve ever seen, she’s no Sara Del Ray, amirite?

A return to WWE: no odds
Maybe I should have said “a return to WWE sponsored activities.” Things like this are rarely isolated events. I sincerely hope for Jillian and her friends and family that this was an isolated incident. If it wasn’t, and it turns out to be part of a pattern of behaviors that need to be addressed, I hope that she gets it. This column is all in good fun, and I can be as self deprecating as anyone on the planet. I won’t go as far as to make light of someone seeking help they potentially need, though. I hope that this is over and done with for her, and she can move on to a stable, happy, productive period of her life.

Per a mandate from Vincent Kennedy McMahon, Jr., the fine folks at World Wrestling Entertainment have decided that their business model should focus more on television ratings than the pay per view numbers. It’s a move that has been widely decried across the internet as a bad decision, but I’m not sure I agree entirely. Now, the conventional thinking is that wrestling promotions should be using television programs to sell pay per views, and that’s pretty hard to argue with. WWE usually has four to seven weeks between pay per view events to hype or “sell” their $50 extravaganzas. Since it costs money to get onto pay per view, if they can effectively generate interest in these three hour blocks of programming, then they stand to negate their expenses and generate additional revenue from people purchasing the pay per view as well as public “Blast Zones” (yes, they’re really still called that) that make the pay per view available to groups in bars and restaurants. It’s a pretty simple principle, really. Why would WWE try to deviate from it?

Well, for one, their pay per view buys are relatively steady. I’m far from an apologist for WWE, but they’ve done good business this year with pay per views, obviously including Wrestlemania. The problem is, though, that television ratings have been considered to be down for a while. The 5/23/11 episode of RAW scored a 3.4 rating. The 5/24/10 scored a 3.1. 5/25/09, a 3.2. 5/19/08, a 3.2. 5/21/07, a 3.7. For a show that once prided itself on pulling in 6’s and 7’s, this constitutes a five year lull and counting. Why?

Well, there’s more competition. In the years since the attitude era, cable has expanded. There’s a lot more quality programming out there that’s available. Shows like Pawn Stars, Ice Road Truckers, and Swamp People are certified hits. Shows such as Breaking Bad, Mad Men, and The Walking Dead have turned AMC into a force. Sports packages for baseball, basketball, and hockey split the audience further. Reality television shows on the networks still pull in big ratings, and all of this has chipped away at a once loyal WWE audience. There’s also the fact that there’s no competition. WWE and WCW were both at their best when the spirit of competition drove them. As the Monday Night Wars faded, the edge was taken off. In the years since, there have been no megastars the likes of Steve Austin, The Rock, or the nWo to draw in casual viewers by the millions.

Reversing this years long trend, then, isn’t such a bad idea. In focusing on television ratings, they’re increasing revenue for themselves. How? Well, advertisers pay more money for ad space on higher rated programs. They know they’ll be advertising to a larger audience, so they shell out more money. It’s another simple business principle. It also makes sense that if the television shows are getting higher ratings, they’re probably a better product. If the product is better, it will likely generate just as many – if not more – sales of pay per views. It goes against the conventional thinking inside the wrestling business, but it’s not necessarily a destructive thought process. The big question is, what will it bring?

A steady upswing in television ratings over the rest of this calendar year: 10 to 1
Shows like this past Monday’s Raw are a mixed bag. On one hand, they managed to squeeze about five minutes of wrestling into the first hour. Part of that was making the United States champion look like even more of a joke than he intentionally is. The second hour, though, was pretty exceptional. It capitalized on storylines and developing people like Big Show, and featured a pretty damn good television match between CM Punk and Daniel Bryan. As an added bonus, they proved they could give us at least a solid hour of programming without relying on Chris Jericho, John Cena, and/or Randy Orton. If we can get two hours like the second hour, then I like their odds a lot better of seeing immediate results.

A sudden spike in ratings over the next three months: 80 to 1
Barring something along the lines of a “live sex celebration”, it’s going to be hard to really bump the ratings for even two weeks at a time. They’re starting to run out of past stars they can trot out for more than nostalgia purposes, and they’re hording Brock Lesnar’s dates for closer to Wrestlemania, and rightfully so. An aside here – that contract has to be the worst in the history of wrestling. I digress. To truly spike the ratings (which we’ll quantify as a greater than 20% jump from current levels, sustained over a three week or greater period) quickly, they’re going to need more luck than anything else.

Flat ratings until a breakout star emerges: 1.5 to 1
Historically, wrestling promotions take off whenever a new star emerges. It happened with Hulk Hogan. It happened with Ric Flair. It happened with the nWo and Goldberg. It happened with Stone Cold Steve Austin. Those stars and those breakthroughs can’t be manufactured. They have to happen organically. The Rock is the best evidence of that. They tried to force The Rock to be a superstar from the word go, and fans revolted. When they just let Rocky be Rocky, magic happened. At some point, for WWE or for TNA, somebody is going to connect with the fans in a way that nobody has for a long time, and we’ll be off to the races once again.

This week, despite repeated insistence of readers over the last few weeks that Randy Orton isn’t a bad guy, and that he has matured and isn’t the same immature guy that got arrested twice for going AWOL, or who vandalized the gym bag of a female co worker, or any other number of incidents, Randy Orton was suspended for 60 days for his second violation of the WWE’s Wellness Policy. While I could take this opportunity to say a lot of things about how this reflects upon both Orton and those that place their faith in Orton, I really feel like there’s only one thing worth saying about the whole situation:

That’s it for me. I’ll try to do better next time. You can message me on Twitter @GavinNapier411 if you want to tell me how much you love me or hate me, or just say hi. Odds are I’ll be back next week.