Handicapping the News 06.08.12

If there were a way for me to crawl inside your heads and know how you read and interpret things, I’d do it. It could be like Being John Malkovich, only for the IWC. You have to process things differently than I do just to draw some of the conclusions that I see in the comments section every week. The pick of the litter this week as far as head scratchers go was the commenter that said I was trying to come off as a “high roller” because I went off on a tangent about cigars. I don’t know what part of the world classifies $10 cigars as high rollers, but I feel like if that’s all it took I could probably fit in there. I’ve also been accused of trying to be “edgy” by saying I like TNA…even though I’ve said numerous times that I just plain like wrestling and want all promotions to succeed. Like I said, there’s got to simply be a difference in how we process things. It intrigues me.

Enough of that, though. Last week I mentioned a reward for being placed in the Reader Spotlight. Well, I’m hammering out the logistics of said reward, and will be implementing it very soon. I want to be careful with this and make sure that it gets handled correctly. The prizes are in short supply and I don’t want to give them to the wrong person. Stay tuned and I’ll have more information about this in the coming weeks. It’s not a dead concept, just a work in progress that’s turning out to be a little trickier than originally anticipated.

This week, though, the spotlight goes to themecca. Again. Because he had the best comment.

with tons of guys out right now, we should put odds on who will step up and become the next break out star. we know Sheamus, Punk and Bryan can deliver, but who from the mid card could be elevated.

Good question. There are some obvious answers, and some less obvious choices. With the thought that the current main event scene is composed of John Cena, The Big Show, Sheamus, Alberto Del Rio, CM Punk, Daniel Bryan, and Kane, here’s my spin on things:

Cody Rhodes and Dolph Ziggler: 3 to 1 The only thing holding these guys back is the fact that they’re both heels right now. One or the other would have to turn face for them to truly have a chance to break through in the current environment. I think Cody is much more suited to a face turn than Dolph at this point, but they’re the two guys on the midcard that are most consistently putting everything together.

Christian, Jack Swagger, The Miz: 8 to 1 All three of these guys have had brief runs at the top of the card before, with varying levels of success. Christian, while his reigns were unfortunately brief, performed well in matches and has shown in TNA, WWECW, and WWE that he can at least operate at the top level. The Miz can rebound from his losing streak quickly if he needs to, and Swagger still has a load of potential. He’s another guy I think would benefit greatly from a face turn.

Kofi Kingston and R Truth, Tensai, Ryback: 15 to 1 Somewhat viable options here, but there are major obstacles to overcome for each. Tag teams haven’t been the focal point for a very long time, and two midcard talents elevating to become the stars of the show hasn’t happened in even longer. Tensai proved he’s not dead in the water by getting some reactions this past Monday with a more aggressive style. Ryback is certainly over, but he’s still very new and hasn’t paid a lot of dues yet. Being shot to the top of the card isn’t going to happen just yet.

Zack Ryder, Santino Marella, Brodus Clay: 35 to 1 These guys all have the same issue – they’re essentially comedy gimmicks. One is a Jersey shore self parody, one is the best mainstream comedy wrestler in years, and one is a dancing fat guy. That’s not to say that they’re not talented, but they’re going to need a repackaging before they get elevated to main event status.

Darren Young and Titus O’Neill, Mason Ryan, Damien Sandow, Sin Cara: 50 to 1 All viable talents for one reason or another, but all also either young or relatively new to the promotion. They’re scrapping for steady roster spots right now, much less main event spots. Sin Cara will be the quickest to break through here…if he can keep hitting his moves.

The wild card in all of this is Wade Barrett. If and when he’s ready to return, he’ll have a chance to really make some waves while there’s a void. Chris Jericho’s return will help, but there’s still a need for a consistent talent to step up. It’ll be an interesting few weeks to see who, if anyone, makes that leap.

Ugh. Look at that thing. It’s huge and bland. Maybe it’ll look better once it’s finished, but I’m not holding out much hope. Aside from the Intercontinental title reverting to the “classic” look, the recent title redesigns have been generally lacking in quality. The butterfly title for the Divas is one of the worst creations in the history of title belts. The tag team titles currently look like giant pennies glued to leather straps. The United States title hasn’t looked good since they brought it back. It looks like it’s been drawn on with markers then had a sturdy layer of varnish added. TNA’s belts aren’t much better, either. The X Division title looks okay, but their other belts just seem bland to me. Perhaps I’m biased, but I enjoyed the belts of the 80’s. The NWA World Tag Team Titles from around 1988 and the United States title from around the same time frame are among my favorite title belts ever. Again, once the colors are shaded in and the belt is a finished product, it may look a little better. What, if anything, does this redesign signal?

Further redesigns are coming: 40 to 1
Most of the belts have recently been either tweaked or overhauled. There’s not much else to work on, except the “big gold” belt, and that one is simply too iconic to tinker with. Isn’t it? Please tell me it is.

Cena moving away from the title picture semi-permanently: 15 to 1
The spinner belt was Cena’s gimmick, and for the duration of it’s existence, he hasn’t been far removed from the title scene. Cena seems to have reached a point where he can comfortably exist without the strap, though, and so there’s no need for his own gimmick title to be thrown in our faces. While there will be a lot of folks that are incredulous about even the slightest possibility of such a thing, I think this is a pretty clear hint that Cena’s going to be otherwise occupied for a while.

An 18 wheeler is missing its grill: 3 to 1
Seriously. That makes the WWECW title look like a wristwatch.

Reports came out this week that Randy Orton had a sit down with Vince McMahon, Triple H, and Kevin Dunn about where things go from here in regards to his second suspension under WWE’s wellness policy. Reports are that the meeting turned hostile and that there is a legitimate chance that Randy Orton will be gone from WWE. The main concern is that Orton is currently inked to a high dollar, long term contract that some feel is no longer justified because they can’t realistically push a guy with 2 strikes for fear of another violation of the wellness policy. If they can’t push Orton, he’s not worth the considerable money that he’s being paid at this point. Now, as much as I personally dislike the guy, I’m smart enough to know that he’s not going to be released unless he gets that third strike. Apparently this violation came from marijuana, which isn’t a suspension but a $2,500 fine and a second test. The second test turned up a banned substance, rumored to be Dianabol, but that hasn’t been confirmed.

When I said “I told you so,” last week, a lot of people seemed to think I was saying that in regards to Orton’s military service. That couldn’t be further from the truth. It was in regards to my statement that people don’t change. People that make bad decisions generally continue to make bad decisions. Regardless of your stance on whether or not marijuana should or shouldn’t be illegal, it is. Same for the steroid Dianabol, if that is in fact what he was nailed for. Knowingly using illegal substances that are in violation of the wellness policy of the company you work for when you’ve already violated that policy once constitutes a stupid decision. That is why I said I told you so. What’s the fallout from this?

Orton is released, goes to TNA: 100 to 1
Orton isn’t going to be released until it’s an absolute necessity. Even if he is released, it’s going to take some creative accounting for TNA to be able to afford Orton. I can see him taking some sporadic dates at big shows in Japan and laying low, but heading to TNA would legitimately surprise me.

Orton is retained, and finds himself firmly in the midcard: 2 to 1
This is the most likely scenario, at least for a while after his return. Even if they eventually get him back to the main event scene (and I expect they will), there’s going to be a form of punishment, most likely in using him to get talent on the level of Ryback, Tensai, and others over.

Absolutely nothing: 15 to 1
I can envision a scenario where Orton is slapped on the wrist and that’s about it. He knows what happens if he fails another test, and that hanging over his head should be enough to keep him out of trouble. Then again…people don’t change.

That’s all I have to say about that.

News of rewrites right before a show are nothing new in the world of wrestling, and especially not from WWE, and certainly not for Monday Night Raw is War Supershow in HD. Whether it’s because there’s a last minute addition to the roster, a last minute detraction from the roster, or a brainstorm from a member of creative, things change a lot. Sometimes right before the show, sometimes mid show, occasionally, mid match. We got word a few weeks ago that Raw was going to be booked more “on the fly” in an attempt to gauge the live crowds and react. Essentially, they were going to a hurry up offense, where they could get a feeling for what was happening on the other side of the security railing and try to exploit it to maximum benefit. If the ratings are any indication (and I’m not so sure they are), then they’re failing at that experiment.

Yes, ratings have dipped, and yes there will be a casualty of it. Whether they blame CM Punk, Tensai, Sheamus, Big Show, John Lauranitis, or The Miz again, somebody will bear the brunt of a dip in ratings. That’s something that you can count on in WWE. There’s a low tolerance for ratings declines, and rightfully so. There are too many ad dollars at stake to allow them to continue to slide. I’m not here to speculate on a quick fix for them, though, and I’m not entirely sure there is one. The only true fix is the long way around – develop new stars, elevate midcarders to the main event after making them look credible in the spot they’re in, and hope somebody catches fire with the crowd.

Despite sending out the declaration that Raw would be more “on the fly” in an attempt to recapture the spontaneity that made it such a revolutionary concept all those years ago, and carried it through the Attitude Era. It’s been a long time since we’ve had a consistent “anything can happen” vibe for Raw, and that’s through no fault of their own. Wrestling fans don’t like surprises. They want to be spoiled weeks in advance, they want to speculate and figure things out and proclaim themselves the smartest of the “s”marks. As I’ve said before, wrestling fans are virtually the only fan base that are bound and determined to tear apart and cannibalize the thing they love.

Say what you will about Eric Bischoff, and I know there are a lot of people that refuse to believe or listen to anything he says, but in his autobiography, he laid out a booking formula that makes perfect sense. Essentially, he said that the easiest way to do things is to book backwards. Figure out what you want the blowoff to be, then figure out how to get there. It gives you an idea of where you’re going instead of making it up as you go along. Now, just because he proposed this doesn’t mean he necessarily followed it in WCW or in TNA, but the theory in and of itself is correct. Booking from show to show is something more suited to small time indy promotions that don’t need to maintain continuity because their shows are two to three months apart with a constantly revolving door of talent and no television to worry about.

Now, just a month or two after deciding to book on the fly, Vince is tired of rewriting Raw. One thing that has long been established about Vince is that he’s a control freak. And rightfully so. The man has made so many enemies through his business strategies within the wrestling business that he’s right to be protective over his product. I’m not suggesting that there are those within WWE that would attempt to sabotage the product, just that a little paranoia is part of any successful dictator. What does Vince’s frustration actually mean, though?

Changes coming to the creative team: 7 to 1
Billy Gunn once asked a very poignant question regarding the WWE Creative team. He was released once because they were told they simply didn’t have anything for him to do. His response? “I’m being fired because you guys can’t do your jobs?” The only spots more fluid than WWE’s lower card guys are the creative team members. If they can’t consistently produce scripts for Raw that are approved by Vince without needing overhauls throughout the day, then they’ll find themselves replaced.

Vince returns to a more full time, hands on role with WWE: 5 to 1
Trips is running the show right now, but this is going to be Vince’s company until the day he dies or is simply physically and mentally no longer able to do things. When things start taking an ugly turn – like pulling one of the lowest ratings in the last 15 years – then he can’t resist the urge to get involved again. Never mind that Raw was competing with a national holiday, the NBA Playoffs, and the highest rated ad supported cable show in history (Hatfields and McCoys), none of that matters to Vince. Even if it’s short term, he’ll be involved heavily again soon.

The status quo remains and things are allowed to fix themselves: 100 to 1
That’s not how things work in WWE. Especially when a major change, such as going to three hours a week, is on the horizon. WCW had a difficult time sustaining three hours of programming weekly when they were at their peak with a bloated roster. WWE isn’t on top of their game right now and there are legitimate concerns about how this will work for them. They can’t continue pulling historically low ratings ahead of that shift, and so the idea that things will simply continue as is has no merit. I will say, in Raw’s defense, that the problem seems to be the first hour. Over the last two weeks, the first hour has been loaded down with recaps and talking segments, and virtually devoid of wrestling. They’ve made up for it in the second hour for the most part, but we’ll overlook the Cena vs. Cole debacle. If we can get two hours that are more like the second hour and balance the show a little bit, I think it would go a long way towards fixing things.

Personally, I’m tired of Joey Ryan already. I was excited to see him get a crack at TNA’s Gut Check, and looked forward to seeing him in the ring. I had heard a lot about the guy, but couldn’t remember ever actually seeing him perform. For as many people that have raved about him, there had to be some substance there. He had to be a pretty good hand in the ring, right?

Well, nothing jumped out at me. Not a thing. And that’s why I feel like TNA made the right decision in turning him away. Now, if all of this turns out to be a gimmick and he gets signed to an OVW contract, great. That’s fine. But apparently, TNA is operating this as a shoot for the time being, and Joey Ryan didn’t get a deal. And he’s upset about it. Pissed off is probably a more accurate term.

I can’t say I don’t understand why. On one hand, this was his big shot. It was a national television audience and an audition doing something he’s invested a lot of years in. To be told that one or more parts of your game is lacking to the point that you’re not good enough to be in TNA – after being undoubtedly told by dozens of people that you are – has to be frustrating, shocking, and disappointing. Joey Ryan lashed out in an attempt to show a little more personality, and maybe sway one of the judges over to his side. He’s kept pressing the issue, just as Paul Heyman said wrestlers should do now. More on that in a moment.

On the other hand, as I mentioned before, Mr. Ryan completely underwhelmed me. Looking at pictures of him from the last couple of years, he looks like he’s actually in worse shape than he was when he gained notoriety. His character, as a total sleazeball, didn’t really come through. Instead he looked like Burt Reynolds doing a Rick Martel impression. The character didn’t come to life on the screen for whatever reason. The match he had with Austin Aries wasn’t bad, but it’s harder to have a bad match with Aries than a good one. Even Joey Ryan admitted that working with Aries made that part of things much easier. When he had a microphone in hand and had to cut the “promo of his life”, instead of living up to the sleazeball character that probably got him the shot in the first place, he played the underdog character and appealed to the fans. It was bad judgment, bad timing, and the wrong approach.

I’m not saying I could have done better. Hell, I’m pretty sure I couldn’t. However, just because I’ve never directed a Hollywood film doesn’t mean I don’t know that Uwe Boll movies suck. I’ve never cut a promo on Impact, but I know when one isn’t very good.

Yet he continues to rail against the decision. Paul Heyman indirectly said he should, so it has to be a good idea, right? Well, not exactly. See, for all of Paul Heyman’s credibility within the world of wrestling, he still managed to operate like a cult leader, treat his workers like garbage, and bankrupt ECW remarkably quickly with terrible decisions and a complete lack of financial planning or responsibility. Having Paul help you with a promo is probably a good idea. Taking general advice about business and career decisions from him, less so.

I’d like to see Joey Ryan’s career evolve past being “the guy that got shot down on TNA’s Gut Check.” For that to happen, though, he’s going to have to let it go. We’re a week removed and that hasn’t happened yet. If he keeps taking a baseball bat to the corpse of a horse, he’s going to invent an entirely unwanted new gimmick for himself.

That’s it for me. I’ll try to do better next time. You can message me on Twitter @GavinNapier411 if you want to tell me how much you love me or hate me, or just say hi. Odds are I’ll be back next week.