wrestling / Columns
Handicapping the News 07.20.12
Welcome back. Once again, I was removed from my Friday duties here at 411 through circumstances beyond my control. A few weeks back, it was a series of storms that wiped out the eastern seaboard of the United States, and last week, it was a sudden, last minute venture that took me out of town Wednesday through Saturday. I really need to get with the late 90’s and buy a laptop, I suppose.
Quite a bit has happened since last we met, some of which we’ll address in this week’s column, if any of you are still around to enjoy it. I will say, that for now, Tweet of the Week (graphic forthcoming) is dead. Why? Well, because the website with which the prizes were associated is temporarily (hopefully) dead. If it’s permanently dead, then suffice to say my wrestling collection will have taken a massive hit. Fingers are officially crossed. As of 8 PM on July 19th, though…it’s dead.
We’re a long way removed from any comments that were left in the last column, so I’ll be skipping the Reader Spotlight this week, as well, and getting straight into the headlines. Hopefully this week represents a return to normalcy for this column. Too often, intermittent delays tend to represent the beginning of the end for a column on the internet in which the writer is a volunteer with his time and vocabulary. I’ve been there myself. However, I’ve got no intentions of quitting this or dropping one of my three columns. It’s just been a rough patch over the last month or so. That’s enough of my useless rambling, though. Now it’s time for my useless speculation!
It was announced on Thursday that Chavo Guerrero had officially signed with TNA. He had been a part of their Ring Ka King promotion in India last year, and had been rumored to be joining for months. Ironically, it was after the speculation about him joining the roster died down that he actually joined the roster. I don’t think it could come at a better time for Chavo or for TNA, because he’ll immediately move into a position where they can focus on him in the X Division or the Tag Division. He’ll be a perfect veteran to bring along the younger guys in the X Division, as well as provide a recognizable face in a sea of young talents. He’d also be a great mentor and/or tag team partner for Hernandez. Chavo brings as much to the table as any non-main event player possibly could. What does TNA hold for Chavo?
X Division Title Run: 15 to 1
TNA has shown that they’re willing to stretch out title reigns over the last year, with Robert Roode and Austin Aries each having historic title runs. For that reason, as well as the obvious long term plan with Jesse Sorenson, I can see TNA holding off on putting the title on Chavo. Eventually, though, I would imagine he’ll have a transitional reign.
Tries to avoid the kiss of death as Hernandez’s tag team partner: 8 to 1
Hernandez recently signed a new deal with TNA, which means they have to do something with him. After seeing partners Machete, Homicide, and Anarquia released, maybe Chavo can break the curse and help get Hernandez over the hump after a stalled singles push.
Gratuitous Eddie Guerrero references from TNA: 3 to 2
There is no more shameless business than professional wrestling. They just signed a guy that happens to be the nephew of one of the all time greats, who was beloved by many and died at a young age. The dots almost connect themselves.
A tweet went out following the Money In The Bank ppv from young Zachary that hinted that this time next year, he may be back on the independent circuit. Ryder has long been a cult favorite in WWE, with vocal demands from crowds to get him on television, and boisterous reactions to any meager success that he’s had. Unfortunately, Zach Ryder is a lesson to all future WWE talents and to all current WWE fans. No matter what the company line is about getting over on your own, it is completely frowned upon. And WWE Universe, they’ll tell you who to like. They don’t need you to make those decisions on your own. Never mind that Ryder sells a pants load of merchandise or appeals to their largest built in demographics (kids and moms), they just seemingly have nothing for him. Except getting squashed by Alberto Del Rio, of course. Where will Ryder be in a year?
WWE: 5 to 1
I make these odds with absolutely no idea of when Ryder’s deal is up, but if indeed it ends within the next year, it’s feasible that he won’t re-up with WWE. What’s more likely, though, is that he’ll find himself the beneficiary of a convenient push, or what amounts to a push for a guy that makes television on an irregular basis and whose big wins include a Smackdown battle royal to be a temporary GM. Promises of more time and money do wonders for a guy’s willingness to sign a new deal.
TNA: 12 to 1
If Ryder does leave WWE, it won’t take long for a major offer to be made, no matter how ill advised it would be (see also: Ken Anderson) for TNA. With built in marketing potential galore, and the opportunity to boot Robbie E out as an introduction, there’s no reason for TNA not to take a chance on him.
Independent promotions: 25 to 1
I can’t see a scenario where, even if he’s not with WWE, Ryder isn’t snatched up by TNA quickly enough to prevent many Indy dates. I can see him returning to his roots in the NY/NJ indy scene, or even making an appearance for Ring of Honor at some point, but this is definitely the least likely of the bunch.
Regardless of who wins the various Wrestler of the Year awards, it would be hard to argue that anyone has had a better year than Austin Aries. It was a year ago that Aries won a contract with TNA at Destination X 2011. What followed was a nearly 300 day reign as X Division Champion, then a win against Robert Roode at Destination X 2012 to claim the TNA World Heavyweight Title. A week later, he signed a long term deal with TNA, assuring that he’s going to be there for a long time to come. As a newly minted main eventer, Aries provides several mouth watering options for wrestling fans. Potential programs with AJ Styles, Samoa Joe, and Kurt Angle loom, as well as rematches with Robert Roode. TNA did an excellent job of elevating Aries over the past year. If they do half as well at keeping him in the main event picture, then they’ll have done something remarkable. With the way they’ve been rolling lately, there’s no reason to think they won’t pull it off. Now that he’s locked up for a while, what can we expect from A Double?
A record setting TNA World Heavyweight Title reign: 30 to 1
There’s something to be said for the fact that Aries has spent the last 308 days as one sort of champion or another. Those sort of reigns just don’t happen very often any more. When you consider that he forfeited the X Division title and won the Heavyweight title on the same night, then it’s even more remarkable. Unfortunately, it’s hard to envision a 9 month reign for Aries to follow not only his epic reign, but Roode’s.
A handful of Match of the Year candidates: 2 to 1
Aries vs. Roode from Destination X is on my short list of candidates for Match of the Year at this point, along with Sheamus vs. Daniel Bryan 2/3 Falls and William Regal vs. Dean Ambrose. As adaptable as Aries is in the ring, there’s no shortage of guys for him to have outstanding matches with on the TNA roster. He can bounce back and forth between heavyweights and x division competitors to keep things fresh for as long as he has the title.
He Desmond Wolfe’s his contract: 100 to 1
Never say never, but Aries doesn’t carry the physical baggage with him that the former and current Nigel McGuinness had when he signed his long term deal. Aries is a fitness freak and has avoided any major potholes to this point in his career. There aren’t any signs that he’ll be out of action permanently within the next three months.
This is the stupidest thing ever. It’s just mind numbing. Rumors began to circulate that Kharma aka Awesome Kong aka Kia Stevens would be done with WWE without ever actually wrestling an official match. After appearing in the Royal Rumble briefly, then disappearing again, we kept hearing rumblings of her imminent return, and there seemed to be several opportunities for her to do so. She could have been the device used to get the Bellas out of WWE. She could have done a run in against Beth Phoenix at any time. She could have stormed the ring during any of a number stupid Divas gimmick matches. Yet it never happened, because of the infamous reason of……”Creative just couldn’t come up with something for her.” Are you kidding me? The only way creative can’t come up with something for Kia Stevens is if they’re actively looking for ways not to. Once again, the words of Billy Gunn ring true. “If creative are the guys not doing their job, why aren’t they getting fired?” What does this mean for the several involved parties?
WWE “replaces” Kharma with Sara Del Ray: 7 to 1
They’ll try, but there’s no replacing her. She’s unique. Sara Del Ray is an awesome female wrestler, but she’s not Kharma/Kong/Stevens. Nobody is. The Divas division will continue to focus on typically attractive, mass marketable females, and understandably so. It’s a business decision. It’s just a shame that they couldn’t find the idea of using a strong, capable, female that is presented as an equal to men as a good business decision.
WWE’s loss is TNA’s gain: 3 to 1
The Impact Zone will erupt should Awesome Kong return. This is a guarantee. She can revive her feud with Gail Kim, she can assault Brooke Tessmacher, she can have excellent matches with Tara and Mickie James, she can team up with somebody to take on ODB and Eric Young. TNA is home for Awesome Kong, and I feel pretty safe in saying we’ll see her there again soon.
Revives her Margaret gimmick: 75 to 1
Japan may be a good place to shake off any ring rust, but it’s hard to imagine a reversion to this. If you’ve never seen it, it’s worth looking up from her days in Double Kong, teaming with Aja Kong in Japan.
If you’ve ever had cable or satellite television, you’ve probably seen warnings that certain channels were about to be dropped. Rarely does this happen, because it’s generally a negotiating tactic to find middle ground between what a network wants and what a provider is willing to pay. Networks generally won’t want to see their audience drop significantly, and cable companies generally don’t want to lose a station on which they can sell advertisements. DirecTV and Viacom haven’t been able to find middle ground yet, though, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen any time soon.
If you’re not familiar with Viacom, they’re responsible for stations such as MTV, Nickelodeon, and Spike TV. You know, that station that carries IMPACT, for TNA, which happens to be the flagship program for North America’s number two promotion. This obviously has a wider impact for network television in general, but this is a wrestling column on the wrestling section of a website that covers all sorts of media.
What will this do to TNA? Ratings have already dipped this summer, but now the total viewership numbers are starting to slide over the last two weeks as well. This isn’t something that TNA can do anything about on their own, but it still affects them. As viewership numbers drop, so do the dollars that advertisers are willing to pay to be featured on programs. TNA faces a potential loss of revenue here that admittedly wouldn’t be likely to sink the company, but could put a financial strain on them as they continue to build momentum and move forward after a string of quality pay per views.
The holdup appears to be a channel known as EPIX, which I know nothing about, and the fee that Viacom wants from DirecTV to carry it. Viacom isn’t budging, DirecTV isn’t budging, and a lot of people are missing out on a lot of programming. Again, my job is to look at this from a wrestling perspective, so what’s the fallout here for TNA?
Dispute is resolved, viewership numbers rebound: 7 to 1
Viacom represents too much programming for this to drag on too long. Should DirecTV continue to trudge forward without that family of networks, they’ll see significant departures as people look to Dish Network and other providers to get those networks. DirecTV does hold something of a trump card with the NFL Network and Sunday Ticket, but at this point, Sunday Ticket has gotten so expensive that not having it can be considered a significant financial relief. Once the programming returns, there will be an uptick in the numbers for TNA, and things should resume the status quo as they continue trying to grow.
This ends up being a significant step back for TNA that requires time to recover from: 15 to 1
In the realm of marketing, television, and advertising, you never want to see a loss of revenue and a decreased audience. People are creatures of habit, and if they’re finding something else to watch on Thursday nights, it could take significant time and effort to woo them back in from whatever they may be watching. I made a conscious decision to drop cable television years ago, so I can’t even tell you what’s on various channels on Thursday nights, but I understand I’m in the minority. As the numbers dip and remain lower than normal, the odds that these viewers stay away continues to rise.
TNA redoubles efforts to grow their audience: 3 to 2
Along with news of contracts and television disputes, there was also news this week from TNA that they’re making concerted efforts to grow their audience within key demographics, as well as open themselves up to new groups. While this seems like a no brainer, you’d be amazed at how many intelligent businessmen routinely make stupid business decisions. Losing a significant chunk of viewing audience is excellent motivation for TNA to push the envelope in an effort to find new viewers to replace the ones that have been at least temporarily lost.
God Almighty am I sick of this.
I won’t argue that what’s going on in TNA with AJ Styles and Claire Lynch and whoever else gets sucked in is the worst angle in mainstream professional wrestling right now. I absolutely will not. However, I find myself more willing to sit through whatever soap opera shtick they throw against the wall than anything involving the Punk/Bryan/AJ triangle in WWE.
It was mildly interesting when she was the damsel in distress with Daniel Bryan. It became more interesting when she broke away from Bryan and started making eyes at people. It was even tolerable when she started trying to mess with Kane’s mind, and for my money, that’s where it should have ended. The crazy girl and the monster would have been a perfect pairing from a marketing standpoint. It would have been a seamless segue into a face run for Kane. But most importantly? It would have let Punk vs. Bryan be about CM Punk, Daniel Bryan, and the WWE Championship.
Instead, what should have been an outstanding match at WWE’s Money In The Bank 2012 ended up being a sideshow to what AJ was doing. The same creative team that couldn’t figure out what to do with one of the greatest female wrestlers on the planet figured out a way to make AJ the focal point of a WWE Championship match between two of the best wrestlers on the planet. It’s been a few weeks since I actually cared about anything that involved her on WWE television. It was this past Sunday that I actually got sick of it and wanted it to go away. Perhaps they’ll redeem themselves and come up with a nice twist of an ending at the “wedding” on the 1000th Raw, and make all of this worth the ride we’ve taken so far. Then again, this is WWE Creative we’re talking about.
That’s it for me. I’ll try to do better next time. You can message me on Twitter @GavinNapier411 if you want to tell me how much you love me or hate me, or just say hi. Odds are I’ll be back next week.
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