411’s WWE RPI Rankings 09.01.13

Click here for the entire spreadsheet containing win/loss records and detailed calculations for the past two months.

Overview of this week’s rankings
John Cena remains at the top of the RPI rankings for an impressive sixth straight week. But following close behind is Roman Reigns, Daniel Bryan, Seth Rollins, and Randy Orton to round out the top five. Cena is likely to remain in the top spot for two more weeks (given that he will continue to have wrestled at least three matches in the past two months). But once that occurs, it will be awfully interesting to see who rises to the top. Roman Reigns greatly benefited from his draw against Daniel Bryan. Since the biggest component of the RPI ranking is opponent’s winning percentage and Daniel Bryan has currently won 85% of his matches, Roman Reigns shot up 7.6 RPI points compared to Daniel Bryan’s 3.1.

Dolph Ziggler and Rob Van Dam have risen the most over the last four weeks while Damien Sandow and Jack Swagger have fallen the most. Rob Van Dam appears poised for a run at the World Heavyweight Championship while Ziggler…well, let’s not focus on where he’s going (since I don’t see a direction). The same can certainly be said for Sandow and Swagger. Is it just me or do feuds get created 1-2 weeks before the next PPV? SummerSlam certainly had that feel for much of the midcard; the US Championship match had no buildup (and no presence on the PPV). By building matches over a longer time frame (much like they did with Bryan and Cena/Orton as well as Punk v. Lesnar), the superstars can rise up the RPI rankings by beating opponents and creating a serious debate about who will prevail given their recent success. Instead, it seems as though superstars win some and lose some up until the point of building of hastily putting together a feud.

My point in dwelling on this point is due to the fact that not only would it make the RPI rankings more valid but it also draws people in to the storyline that much more. Think of the big, epic matches that define wrestling; were they thrown together at the last minute or was there a buildup? Savage v. Hogan at Wrestlemania 5 comes to mind. Even Punk v. Cena at Money in the Bank in 2011 is a more recent example. Who didn’t look forward to the Daniel Bryan v. John Cena match at SummerSlam due to the anticipation of Bryan getting his due? And there really is no reason why building up a feud couldn’t occur for every superstar on the roster. I remember the days when the main event would be announced a week in advance for Monday Night Raw and the anticipation would almost be unbearable. When was the last time that occurred? Instead, we tune in on Monday’s and are then treated with what the main event will be. Anticipation is important from a fan’s perspective because the payoff is ultimately rewarding just like any drug of choice.

Top ten movers over the last 4 weeks

RPI Explained
The ratings percentage index (RPI; out of 100) is a method which ranks teams or individuals based upon their wins, losses and strength of schedule. It is used by the NCAA to aid in the selecting and seeding of teams appearing in tournaments such as basketball’s March Madness.

Why are RPI rankings superior to simple win-loss records? Imagine a superstar that wins matches only against jobbers. Sure, their win/loss record will be stellar but by facing opponents who always lose, their RPI will not be as high as a superstar who wins half their matches but always faces opponents with stellar win/loss records. Using a statistically valid approach to examine WWE superstars will allow fans to determine if their favorite wrestler is being booked appropriately and whether their stock is rising or falling.

The factors involved are:
1) the superstar’s winning percentage (25%)
2) the average winning percentage of the superstar’s opponents (50%)
3) the average winning percentage of the superstar’s opponents’ opponents (25%)