411’s Countdown to WrestleMania 25: WrestleMania By the Numbers

Welcome one and all to the first installment of 411’s countdown to the Big Dance, the night where the lights shine the brightest, the grandest stage, the cornerstone of the wrestling calendar, the place where it all begins again, the Showcase of the Immortals, THE GRANDADDY OF THEM ALL — WRESTLEMANIA 25!!!

This year, the 411 staff has put together two full weeks of special edition WrestleMania-themed columns. Each day, we’ll be posting WrestleMania musings, memories, dream matches, and more as we count down the days to the biggest night in the history of the professional wrestling calendar year.

For the second year in a row, I’ve decided to assume the unenviable task of slogging through the stats of WrestleManias gone by. Basically, I thought it’d be a fun way to kickstart the 411 WrestleMania countdown if we all took a quick chance to look at some of the “numbers” behind each of the WrestleManias of the past. I’m not talking about live gate revenue, merchandise sales or anything like that — I’m talking about the storied (useless?) “trivia and tidbits” behind each of the major trends at ‘Manias past. You know, all of the fun (and ultimately meaningless) factoids that you can swap with your buddies while watching the big dance from your local neighborhood watering hole.

This was a heck of a lot of fun last year, and comparing this year’s stats with those from last March, I can’t help but notice that if there’s one thing to be learned by studying the hard facts of past WrestleMania cards, it’s simply to expect the unexpected.

So join Mee as we go inside the numbers!

Fittingly, as we count down the days to the “Big Dance” ourselves, we’ll start this feature off by tracing past performers’ success as they too have navigated the home stretch down “The Road To WrestleMania.”

Royal Rumble Winners Who’ve Gone on to Win Championships at WrestleMania: ELEVEN.
Is “The Road to WrestleMania” Paved with Gold?

Yokozuna – won the 1993 Royal Rumble, then the WWF Title (WM 9)
Bret Hart – co-won the 1994 Royal Rumble (with Lex Luger), then the WWF Title (WM 10)
Shawn Michaels – won the 1996 Royal Rumble, then the WWF Title (WM 12)
Steve Austin – won the 1998 Royal Rumble, then the WWF Title (WM 14)
Steve Austin – won the 2001 Royal Rumble, then the WWF Title (WM 17)
Triple H – won the 2002 Royal Rumble, then the Undisputed Title (WM 18)
Brock Lesnar – won the 2003 Royal Rumble, then the WWE Title (WM 19)
Chris Benoit – won the 2004 Royal Rumble, then the World Title (WM 20)
Batista – won the 2005 Royal Rumble, then the World Title (WM 21)
Rey Mysterio – won the 2006 Royal Rumble, then the World Title (WM 22)
The Undertaker – won the 2007 Royal Rumble, then the World Title (WM 23)

Note: Last year, John Cena’s failure to win gold at WrestleMania marked the first time in EIGHT years that a Royal Rumble winner was unsuccessful at a WrestleMania match. The man who beat him, of course, is none other than *this year’s* Royal Rumble winner himself, Randy Orton.

In Other Words: According to the historical precedent, eleven of seventeen Royal Rumble winners have gone on to win gold at WrestleMania since 1993. By this statistic, Orton has a 64.7% chance of defeating Triple H for the WWE Championship.

Newcomers to the “Grandest Stage of Them All” always generate their fair share of buzz in the weeks prior to WrestleMania, so here’s our chance to highlight those performers that will be eligible to make their WrestleMania debuts at this year’s supershow. Interestingly, you’ll notice that there are a LOT of performers on WWE’s roster who have yet to make their WrestleMania debuts (for the sake of this column, we’re not counting dark matches or pre-show battle royales).

Current WWE Divas Eligible for WrestleMania Debuts in 2008: THIRTEEN
The following female peformers have never yet competed in a televised WrestleMania match

Jillian (RAW)
Kelly Kelly (RAW)
Layla London (RAW)
Rosa Mendez (RAW)

Alicia Fox (ECW)
Katie Lea Birchill (ECW)
Natalya Neidhart (ECW)

Brie Bella (SD!)
Eve Torres (SD!)
Maria (SD!)
Maryse (SD!)
Michelle McCool (SD!)
Nikki Bella (SD!)

Note: For the sake of this list, we’re counting actual performances as an *in-ring competitor*, thus excluding those performers who’ve taken part in ringside roles (valets, lumberjills, etc.) in WrestleManias past. Since women’s matches remain something of a premium on The Grandest Stage of Them All, missing a spot on the WrestleMania card is not nearly as disastrous for the ladies as it can be for their male counterparts. As a frame of reference, the single most WrestleMania-experienced female performer currently on a WWE roster (Melina) has only competed in just TWO WrestleMania matches in her entire career, going 2-0 in the process. In fact, the female performer with the most WrestleMania experience all of company history is Trish Stratus, who appeared in just FOUR separate WrestleMania matches.

In Other Words: Last year, nine female performers on a WWE roster had yet to compete in a televised WrestleMania match. Since that time, two of those same ladies have been released from the company (22%). This year, WWE has thirteen ladies on the payroll who’ve yet to make a WrestleMania debut. If history holds true, at least two or three of these same ladies will be released from the company by WrestleMania XXVI.

Current WWE Superstars Eligible for WrestleMania Debuts in 2008: TWENTY-SIX.
The following in-ring performers have never yet competed in a televised WrestleMania match (not including pre-show / dark matches)

Cody Rhodes (RAW)
Dolph Ziggler (RAW)
JTG (RAW)
Kofi Kingston (RAW)
Mike Knox (RAW)
Santino Marella (RAW)
Shad Gaspard (RAW)
Sim Snuka (RAW)

DJ Gabriel (ECW)
Evan Bourne (ECW)
Jack Swagger (ECW)
The Miz (ECW)
Paul Birchill (ECW)
Ricky Ortiz (ECW)
Tyson Kidd (ECW)

Curt Hawkins (SD!)
Brian Kendrick (SD!)
DH Smith (SD!)
Ezekiel Jackson (SD!)
Festus (SD!)
Jesse (SD!)
Primo (SD!)
R-Truth (SD!)
Ryan Braddock (SD!)
Vladimir Kozlov (SD!)
Zack Ryder (SD!)

Note: Last year, twenty four male performers on a WWE roster had yet to compete in a televised WrestleMania match. Since that time, twelve of those same men have been released from the company (50%). This year, 26 WWE superstars await an opportunity to make their WrestleMania debuts.

In Other Words: If historical precedent is any indicator, male talent who’ve never make a WrestleMania card has good reason to fear for their jobs. Judging from last year’s figures, one out of every two contracted male performers who’ve never receieved a WrestleMania payday typically end up being released by World Wrestling Entertainment by the next year’s event.

From Macho Man’s tearful reunion with Miss Elizabeth to Stone Cold’s shocking deal with the devil himself, WrestleMania has played host to some of the most memorable swerves and allegiance changes in the history of professional wrestling. This section looks at who turned on who and how they did it, as well as just *when*, exactly, wrestling fans might be able to expect to see another shocking development some time on down the line.

FACE Turns at WrestleMania: EIGHT.
Tracking the baddies who “saw the light” at The Grandaddy of Them All

Brutus Beefcake – left the Dream Team and helped Roddy Piper at WM 3
Andre the Giant – turned on Bobby Heenan at WM 6
Randy Savage – reunited with Miss Elizabeth at WM 7
Steve Austin – refused to submit to Bret Hart’s Sharpshooter at WM 13
Mike Tyson – knocked out dX’s Shawn Michaels and sided with Steve Austin at WM 14
The Big Show – turned on Vince McMahon after being disqualified at WM 15
Kane – was turned on by Chyna at WM 15
Hulk Hogan – turned face by fans in the Toronto Skydome against The Rock in WM 18

Note: With eight babyface turns in 24 prior WrestleMania PPV events, fans can reasonably expect to see one rulebreaker to become a hero at WrestleMania at the rate of about once every four years or so (25%). That said, a heroic WrestleMania babyface turn hasn’t occured since 2002 (WM 18), and the last time such a feat took place it wasn’t even in the script! That means fans have waited ten whole years — more than TWICE the average statistic — to see this phenomenon actually be written into the show.

In Other Words: Statistics indicate that WrestleMania is long overdue for some uber-rulebreaker to undergo a major babyface turn on the Grandest Stage of Them All. That said, even if the “when” part of the equation is figured out, virtually *ALL* of the babyface turns in WrestleMania history have pretty much come without any prior warning whatsoever — so there’s almost no way to predict just *who*, exactly, might be the one doing the turning.

HEEL Turns at WrestleMania: SEVEN.
Keeping tabs on the good guys who joined “the dark side” at the Big Dance

Rick Martel – walked out on Tito Santana during Strike Force match at WM 5
Curt Hennig – heelishly disqualified Lex Luger as guest referee at WM 10
Bret Hart – famed “double-turn” Sharpshooter finish vs. Steve Austin at WM 13
Triple H – reunited with Chyna at WM 15
Vince McMahon – turned on The Rock in the main event of WM 16
Steve Austin – aligned with Vince McMahon to defeat The Rock at WM 17
Trish Stratus – swerved Chris Jericho to reveal her loyalty to Christian at WM 20

Note: Heel turns at WrestleMania PPVs of the past are even more of a rarity than their babyface counterpart, as the prevailing line of thought has (traditionally) been to “send the fans home happy” and use the WrestleMania card to blow off long-running storylines rather than compound them with a dastardly and unexpected twist. As such, WrestleMania heel turns occur just north of once every four years (26.09%). But since the last once occured a full FIVE ago (WM 20), fans could very well wind up seeing something of this nature at WrestleMania 25.

In Other Words: As “The Grandaddy of Them All” typically signals the end of the booking year, surprise jumps to the dark side have always been something of a WrestleMania rarity as feuds reach their climactic blowoff point. There have been a few noteworthy exceptions to this rule, however, and with the WWE Draft looming large just days after this year’s event, a roster-shakeup can really help launch a newly turned rulebreaker into a fresh environment to begin the booking year with a clean slate.

FACE Wins in WrestleMania Final Match/Main Events: TWENTY-TWO.
A look at who had their hand raised as the show drew to a close

Hulk Hogan & Mr. T – defeated Roddy Piper & Paul Orndorff (WM 1)
Hulk Hogan – defeated King Kong Bundy in a steel cage match (WM 2)
Hulk Hogan – defeated Andre the Giant (WM 3)
“Macho Man” Randy Savage – defeated Ted DiBaise (WM 4)
Hulk Hogan – defeated Randy Savage (WM 5)
The Ultimate Warrior – defeated fellow fan-favorite Hulk Hogan (WM 6)
Hulk Hogan – defeated Sgt. Slaughter (WM 7)
Hulk Hogan – defeated Sid Justice by disqualification (WM 8)
Hulk Hogan – defeated Yokozuna after Yokozuna defeated Bret Hart (WM 9)
Bret Hart – defeated Yokozuna (WM 10)
Lawrence Talor – defeated Bam Bam Bigelow (WM 11)
Shawn Michaels – defeated fellow fan-favorite Bret Hart in an Iron Man Match (WM 12)
The Undertaker – defeated Psycho Sid (WM 13)
Steve Austin – defeated Shawn Michaels (WM 14)
Steve Austin – defeated The Rock (WM 15)
Triple H – defeated Chris Jericho (WM 18)
Brock Lesnar – defeated quasi-fan-favorite Kurt Angle (WM 19)
Chris Benoit – defeated Triple H and Shawn Michaels (WM 20)
Batista – defeated Triple H (WM 21)
John Cena – defeated Triple H (WM 22)
John Cena – defeated fellow fan-favorite Shawn Michaels (WM 23)
The Undertaker – defeated Edge (WM 24)

Note: If you’re a babyface in a title match at WrestleMania, you’d better hope to the heavens that your bout is the last one on the card. “Good guys” have walked out of the last match of a WrestleMania card with their hand held high a staggering 22 out of 24 times. That means that a law-abiding babyface has emerged victorious to close out a WrestleMania card a mind-blowing 91.66% of the time.

In Other Words: Heels competing in the last match of the night are virtually guaranteed to fail. The only two heelish victories in the last match on a WrestleMania card in history (WM 16 and WM 17) were only achieved thanks to a last-second alliance with an onscreen uberbaddie (Vince McMahon on both occassions). With each of the McMahons firmly entrenched in the Triple H/Randy Orton storyline, The Game had better hope that he can keep his friends close and his family closer to close out the show, lest he end up walking away from the main event without his championship belt.

WrestleMania is indeed The Showcase of the Immortals, and many of those larger-than-life characters managed to earn themselves a place in the annals of history thanks to a high-profile championship victory on The Grandest Stage of Them All. In this section, we take a quick look at just which belts changed hands and when.

ECW Title Changes at WrestleMania: ONE.
Tracing the WM history of WWE’s Newest Championship

Kane – defeated Chavo Guerrero (WM 24)

Note: Since it was revived in 2006, the ECW Championship has only been contested once during a WrestleMania pay-per-view. In its sole defense, the belt was lost to the challenger — making it the one and only active championship belt in World Wrestling Entertainment with a WrestleMania title-change rate of 100%.

In Other Words: It’s probably still way too early to guarantee if this one-off statistic will hold in future WrestleMania events. If the ECW Champion does manage to compete on the show and lose his championship in the process, however, WrestleMania could well become the stage for “the curse of the ECW Championship” — well, for the defending champion, at least.

WORLD Title Changes at WrestleMania: FIVE.
Tracing the WM lineage of Smackdown’s highest prize

Chris Benoit – defeated Triple H and Shawn Michaels at WM 20
Batista – defeated Triple H at WM 21
Rey Mysterio – defeated Kurt Angle and Randy Orton at WM 22
The Undertaker – defeated Batista at WM 23
The Undertaker – defeated Edge at WM 24

Note: Since the title’s inception in September, 2002, it has only been successfully retained at one WrestleMania PPV, when Triple H defeated Booker T (WM 19). This gives the title an average titleholder-retention rate of just 16.67%, tipping the odds heavily in favor of the challenger, and making it the current WWE prize most likely to change hands at any given WrestleMania PPV (second to the ECW Championship, of course).

In Other Words: Once again, Edge’s odds of retaining this belt look almost as grim as they did last year (when he lost, by the way), as the success rate for folks chasing the Big Gold Belt at WrestleMania stands at a whopping 83.33%.

WWE Title Changes at WrestleMania: SIXTEEN.
Tracing the WM lineage of RAW’s highest prize

“Macho Man” Randy Savage – won a tournament for the vacant title at WM 4
Hulk Hogan – defeated Randy Savage at WM 5
The Ultimate Warrior – defeated Hulk Hogan at WM 6
Hulk Hogan – defeated Sgt. Slaughter at WM 7
“Macho Man” Randy Savage – defeated Ric Flair at WM 8
Yokozuna – defeated Bret Hart at WM 9
Hulk Hogan – defeated Yokozuna at WM 9
Bret Hart – defeated Yokozuna at WM 10
Shawn Michaels – defeated Bret Hart at WM 12
The Undertaker – defeated Sycho Sid at WM 13
Steve Austin – defeated Shawn Michaels at WM 14
Steve Austin – defeated The Rock at WM 15
Steve Austin – defeated The Rock at WM 17
Triple H – defeated Chris Jericho at WM 18
Brock Lesnar – defeated Kurt Angle at WM 19
John Cena – defeated JBL at WM 21

Note: Since WrestleMania’s inception in March, 1985, this title has been defended at every WrestleMania PPV but one (WM 1). Though it has successfully been defended on nine separate occassions at WrestleMania (WM 2, WM 3, WM 10, WM 11, WM 16, WM 20, WM 22, WM 23, WM 24), it has also changed hands a whopping sixteen times at WrestleMania PPV events. This means that on average, fans can expect to see the WWE Championship change hands and the challenger emerge victorious in just shy of two out of every three WrestleMania contests (64%).

In Other Words: The WWE Championship has not changed hands at WrestleMania since WM 21. That means that we’ve gone three whole WrestleMania PPVs without seeing a challenger win this belt on The Grandest Stage of Them All. With a champion’s defense rate of just 36%, conventional wisdom says that fans are at LEAST one year overdue to see someone else but the current champion walk away in possession of the spinner belt by night’s end.

Successful Top-Tier Title Defenses at WrestleMania: TEN.
Including World, WWE, Undisputed and ECW Championship Matches

Hulk Hogan – retained the WWF Title against King Kong Bundy (WM 2)
Hulk Hogan – retained the WWF Title against Andre the Giant (WM 3)
Yokozuna – retained the WWF Title against Lex Luger (WM 10)
Diesel – retained the WWF Title against Shawn Michaels (WM 11)
Triple H – retained the WWF Title in a four-way match (WM 16)
Triple H – retained the World Title against Booker T (WM 19)
Eddie Guerrero – retained the WWE Title against Kurt Angle (WM 20)
John Cena – retained the WWE Title against Triple H (WM 22)
John Cena – retained the WWE Title against Shawn Michaels (WM 23)
Randy Orton – retained the WWE Title against Triple H and John Cena (WM 24)

Note: In thirty two matches for “top titles” at WrestleMania PPV events in years past (World, WWE, Undisputed, and ECW titles), only ten of those matches saw top-tier championship belts leaving the night around the waist of the same person who walked into the evening wearing the gold. By the numbers, this means that just north of 31.25% of all top-level champions leave WrestleMania wearing the same belt they entered the arena with just hours earlier.

In Other Words: Currently, WWE has three active “top” titles (ECW Championship, WWE Championship, and World Heavyweight Championship). With a historical champion defense rate of just shy of 33%, that means that two out of three of the company’s “major” titles will likely change hands at this year’s WrestleMania.

This is the part where legends are made — the individual WrestleMania accolades. In this section, you’ll find WrestleMania win/loss records for each of WWE’s current crop of performers. In addition, we’ve got a ton of info on which stars have the strongest and weakest WrestleMania streaks to date, as well as some insight regarding which stars have *yet* to pick up a big win on The Grandest Stage of Them All.

Current WWE Performers with the MOST WrestleMania Experience
Ranked in order of most WrestleMania appearances to fewest

1. The Undertaker – has competed in 16 separate WrestleMania PPV events.
2. Shawn Michaels – has competed in 15 separate WrestleMania PPV events.
3. Triple H – has competed in 12 separate WrestleMania PPV events.
4. Kane – has competed in 10 separate WrestleMania PPV events.
5. JBL – has competed in 9 separate WrestleMania PPV events.

Note: Obviously this stat would lead one to believe that WrestleMania is certainly the place for the veterans to shine. Yet if you take a look at the overall WM win/loss rates for each WWE performer (below), it becomes pretty clear that most WM *appearances* does not always translate to most WM *WINS*.

In Other Words: Four out of five of WWE’s current crop of performers with the MOST WrestleMania appearances to their credit also just so happen to boast WrestleMania win/loss records shy of the .500 mark. This is a testament both to the staying power and the success of The Undertaker, who is the only active veteran performer to have racked up “decades of destruction” with a winning record on The Grandest Stage of Them All.

Current WWE Performers with STRONGEST WrestleMania Win/Loss Records
(Must have competed in 3 WrestleMania matches or more)

1. Undertaker – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 16-0 (100%)
2. John Cena – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 4-1 (80%)
3. Batista – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 3-1 (75%)
4. Edge – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 5-2 (71.43%)
5. Christian – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 3-2 (60%)

Note: John Cena remains WrestleMania’s second biggest winner in spite of a loss at last year’s WrestleMania. Thanks to a win and a loss, respectively, Batista and Edge have switched places from last year’s list of WrestleMania’s winningest performers. Also, Christian’s return to World Wrestling Entertainment has bumped two men from the top five ranking, as Kane (WM win/loss record of 5-5, or 50%) and Rey Mysterio, WM win/loss record of 2-2, or 50%) both fail to beat his winning percentage of 60%.

In Other Words: Once again, this stat shows us why it’s no wonder that The Undertaker’s WrestleMania record is not likely to be beat, as it is no-brainer marketing ploy for each year’s event. Nobody even comes CLOSE to matching the guy’s longevity and success.

Current WWE Performers with WEAKEST WrestleMania Win/Loss Records
(Must have competed in 3 WrestleMania matches or more)

1. Jeff Hardy – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 0-4 (0%)
2. Goldust – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 0-3 (0%)
3. Vince McMahon – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 0-3 (0%)
4. Big Show – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 1-7 (12.5%)
5. Matt Hardy – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 1-5 (17%)
6. Shelton Benjamin – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 1-4 (20%)
7. Chris Jericho – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 2-6 (25%)
8. JBL – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 3-6 (33.33%)
9. Randy Orton – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 2-3 (40%)
10. Shawn Michaels – has amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 6-9 (40%)

Note: Kane, Michaels, Orton and Bradshaw each picked up wins at last year’s WrestleMania to improve their standing as WWE’s losingest WrestleMania performers and inch each of them closer the 50% win/loss mark (with last year’s win, Kane moves to 50% at WM and leaves the loser’s list entirely). Meanwhile, Show, Shelton and Jericho each failed to win at last year’s event, sliding them further down the scale of the WWE performers with the worst WrestleMania win/loss records in history. In addition, the return of Goldust likewise restructures WrestleMania’s “bottom ten,” as The Bizzare One has never won a match at The Big Dance despite having competed on three separate WrestleMania cards.

In Other Words: History isn’t on Jeff Hardy’s side going into this year’s WrestleMania. But then again, his elder brother really doesn’t have all that much in the way of a WrestleMania win/loss record to brag about, either. If a singles bout at WrestleMania does indeed transpire between these two men, it will mark the highest profile ‘Mania match *EVER* to have been contested between two of the losingest performers in the history of the show.

Current WWE Performers with Unbeaten WrestleMania Streaks
Ranked from longest to shortest streak, based on number of wins

1. The Undertaker – has gone 16-0 in his fifteen WrestleMania appearances.
2. Melina – has gone 2-0 in her two WrestleMania appearances.
3. Beth Phoenix – has gone 1-0 in her sole WrestleMania appearance.
The Great Khali – has gone 1-0 in his sole WrestleMania appearance.
Mickie James – has gone 1-0 in her sole WrestleMania appearance.
Tommy Dreamer – has gone 1-0 in his sole WrestleMania appearance.

Note: As was the case last year, we’ve excluded one-off WrestleMania celebrity competitors (Floyd Mayweather, for example) for the sake of this ranking. In terms of regular competitors, newly gone from this list are John Cena and Mr. Kennedy, both of whom earned their first WrestleMania losses at last year’s event.

In Other Words: With John Cena suffering his first ever defeat at WrestleMania last year, The Undertaker remains virtually untouchable among the ranks of WWE’s current crop of The Big Dance’s unbeaten. The second longest WrestleMania winning streak by a male performer is a paltry ONE victory, an honor shared by two of the roster’s least capable in-ring performers in The Boogey Man and The Great Khali. By dumb luck, the soon-to-retire Tommy Dreamer is actually the only remaining male competitor on a WWE roster who can likewise lay claim to an unbeaten streak at WrestleMania.

Current WWE Performers with Winless WrestleMania Streaks
Ranked from longest to shortest streak, based on number of losses

1. Jeff Hardy – has gone 0-4 in his four WrestleMania appearances.
2. Goldust – has gone 0-3 in his three WrestleMania appearances.
3. Vince McMahon – has gone 0-3 in his three WrestleMania appearances.
4. Finlay – has gone 0-3 in his three WrestleMania appearances.
5. Carlito – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
Funaki – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
Mark Henry – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
MVP – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
Umaga – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
William Regal – has gone 0-2 in his two WrestleMania appearances.
Jamie Noble – has gone 0-1 in his sole WrestleMania appearance.
John Morrison – has gone 0-1 in his sole WrestleMania appearance.
Matt Striker – has gone 0-1 in his sole WrestleMania appearance.

Note: Last year, twenty performers were under contract with WWE and had yet to pick up a WrestleMania win despite having already appeared on the show. This year, that list has shrunk to just 13 performers — meaning that seven wrestlers with winless streaks on The Grandest Stage of Them all were handed their walking papers in the past 365 days. You’ll note that only three active performers (two if you exclude Striker) remain on a WWE roster despite having lost their one and only WrestleMania appearance.

In Other Words: Losing at WrestleMania is nothing to cry about (heck, just about everyone has done it). Still, losing EVERY TIME you get to WrestleMania? Well, that’s something of a heartbreaker. And making the card just once in your career only to end up eating a pinfall is usually a sure sign that you’ll be pursuing “future endeavours” in short order.

Individual WrestleMania Win/Loss Records
WM records for each current in-ring male WWE performer (alphabetical)

Batista: 3-1
Big Show: 1-7
Carlito: 0-2
Charlie Haas: 1-1
Chavo Guerrero: 1-2
Chris Jericho: 2-6
Christian: 3-2
CM Punk: 1-1
Edge: 5-2
Finlay: 0-3
Funaki: 0-2
Goldust: 0-3
Great Khali: 1-0
Hurricane Helms: 1-1
JBL: 3-6
Jamie Noble: 0-1
Jeff Hardy: 0-4
Jim Duggan: 2-1-1
Jimmy Wang Yang 0-1 (as Akio)
John Cena: 4-1
John Morrison 0-1
Kane: 5-5
Mark Henry: 0-2
Matt Hardy: 1-5
Matt Striker: 0-1
Mr. Kennedy: 1-1
MVP: 0-2
Randy Orton: 2-3
Rey Mysterio: 2-2
Shawn Michaels 6-9
Shelton Benjamin 1-4
The Undertaker: 16-0
Tommy Dreamer 1-0
Triple H: 5-7
Umaga: 0-2
Vince McMahon: 0-3
William Regal: 0-2

Diva WrestleMania Win/Loss Records
WM records for each current in-ring female WWE performer (alphabetical)

Beth Phoenix: 1-0
Candice Michelle: 0-1
Maria: 0-1
Melina: 2-0
Mickie James: 1-0

To close out the column, we’re going to play mad scientist and combine a whole slew of the stats above to see if we can’t predict who all is most likely to come out a winner when this year’s show is in the books. There’s an old saying that “you can use math to prove just about anything,” and so basically, we’re merging individual performance records with other statistical trends in order to see how each major performer is likely to fair against a similar composite for his WrestleMania opponent. Here goes nothing!

Money in the Bank
1. Mark Henry (0-2, or 0% odds of winning)
2. Shelton Benjamin (1-4, or 20% odds of winning)
3. Finlay (0-3, or 0% odds of winning)
4. MVP (0-2, or 0% odds of winning)
5. Kofi Kingston (WM Debut)
6. Christian (3-2, or 60% odds of winning)
7. Kane (5-5, or 50% odds of winning)
8. CM Punk (1-1, or 50% odds of winning)

Note: Judging by strength of past WrestleMania win/loss records alone, Christian has the best chance of winning at this year’s WrestleMania. However, of the four previous Money in the Bank winners, no past heavyweight champion has ever earned a guaranteed title shot, and no single performer has ever won the match on two separate occassions. This means that past champions Kane, Henry and Punk each have a historical precedent totalling a 0% chance of a victory (allowing the remaining five men to earn an additional 20% odds of victory apiece), while Punk scores an additional 0% statistic against him to pick up a second Money in the Bank win. Meanwhile, one man (Mr. Kennedy) actually managed to snag the briefcase in his WrestleMania debut, giving a 25% chance of MitB victory to the sole performer making his WrestleMania debut in the match this year (Kofi Kingston).

It should be noted that of the four previous Money in the Bank winners, two were faces at the time of their victory while two were heels, giving every man in the match an equal opportunity to pick up the win regardless of whether they’re a rulebreaker or a crowd favorite. Interestingly, however, no minority performer in WrestleMania history has ever won a Money in the Bank ladder match, meaning that history would put MVP, Mark Henry, Shelton Benjamin and Kofi Kingston at a 0% chance of victory apiece, while the four remaining competitors each split an equal share (25% apiece) of earning the victory.

In Other Words: Combining individual stats with the aforementioned trends and dividing by the appropriate number of fields under consideration, each man’s odds look like this…

Mark Henry – 0% (personal w/l record) + 0% (past champ odds) + 0% (minority in MitB) = 0% chance of winning.

Shelton Benjamin – 20% (personal w/l record) + 20% (non champ odds) + 0% (minority in MitB) = 13.3% chance of winning.

Finlay– 20% (personal w/l record) + 20% (non champ odds) + 25% (caucasian in MitB) = 21.67% chance of winning.

MVP – 0% (personal w/l record) + 20% (non champ odds) + 0% (minority in MitB) = 6.67% chance of winning.

Kofi Kingston – 25% (newcomer odds) + 20% (non champ odds) + 0% (minority in MitB) = 15% chance of winning.

Christian = 60% (personal w/l record) + 20% (non champ odds) + 25% (caucasian in MitB) = 35% chance of winning.

Kane = 50% (personal w/l record) + 0% (past champ odds) + 25% (caucasian in MitB) = 25% chance of winning.

CM Punk = 50% (personal w/l record) + 0% (past champ odds) + 0% (repeat winner odds) + 25% (caucasian in MitB) = 18.75% chance of winning.

If Triple H vs. Randy Orton goes on LAST…

1. Orton (a heel main-eventer) has an 8.33% chance of victory, while Triple H (a face)’s odds are 91.66%.
2. Orton (a Rumble Winner) has a 64.7% chance of victory, while Triple H’s odds are 35.3%.
3. Orton (a challenger for the WWE Championship) has a 64% chance of victory, while Triple H (defending WWE Champ)’s odds are 36.3%

Note: Averaging each man’s odds of victory (by combining their unique likelihood of winning in each of the three aforementioned trends and then dividing by three), Randy Orton has a 45.58% chance of winning the WWE Championship at WrestleMania, while Triple H has a 54.42% chance of retaining. However, when you average *this* win/loss record against each man’s past WrestleMania success (Orton’s 40% win/loss ratio in past WM matches vs. Triple H’s WrestleMania winning percentage of 41.66%),
Orton’s odds of winning drop to 42.74%, while Triple H’s odds of retaining drop to 48.04%

In Other Words: Even though the Royal Rumble winner typically wins gold in his guaranteed bout in “the main event at WrestleMania,” Orton has much better odds of winning the belt (almost 10%) if his title match actually takes place prior to the show-ending main event.

If Triple H vs. Randy Orton DOES NOT GO ON LAST…

1. Orton (a Rumble Winner) has a 64.7% chance of victory, while Triple H’s odds are 35.3%.
2. Orton (a challenger for the WWE Championship) has a 64% chance of victory, while Triple H (defending WWE Champ)’s odds are 36.3%

Note: Averaging each man’s odds of victory (by combining their unique likelihood of winning in each of the two aforementioned trends and then dividing by two), Randy Orton has a 64.92% chance of winning the WWE Championship at WrestleMania, while Triple H has a 35.8% chance of retaining. However, when you average *this* win/loss record against each man’s past WrestleMania success (Orton’s 40% win/loss ratio in past WM matches vs. Triple H’s WrestleMania winning percentage of 41.66%),
Orton’s odds of winning drop to 52.46%, while Triple H’s odds of retaining drop to 38.73%

In Other Words: Triple H had better hope that his match against Orton goes on last. If it doesn’t, The Game is barely looking at a one-in-three shot of retaining his WWE Championship title.

If John Cena vs. The Big Show vs. Edge goes on LAST…

1. Edge and Big Show (heel main-eventers) each have an 8.33% chance of victory, while Cena (a face)’s odds are 91.66%.
2. Edge (defending World Champ) has a 16.66% chance of victory, while Big Show and Cena (World Title challenger)’s split the remaining odds of an 83.33% chance to win.
3. There have been three triple threat matches for a top title in WrestleMania history (making a total of nine participants overall). Only one champion has ever retained gold in a top title match contested under triple threat rules at WrestleMania, meaning that Edge (the defending champion) has a mere 11.11% chance of retaining, while Show and Cena’s combined odds of walking away a new champion total a staggering 89.89%

Note: Averaging each man’s odds of victory (by combining their unique likelihood of winning in each of the three aforementioned trends and then dividing by three), it breaks down like this…

Edge = 8.33 (heel winning a main event odds) + 16.66 (heel defending gold odds) + 11.11 (champ’s triple threat odds) = 36.1… divided by 3 (the number of categories) = 12.03% average chance of winning.

Show = 8.33 (heel winning a main event odds) + 41.665 (split odds of capturing gold) + 44.95 (split challengers odds in a triple threat) = 94.95… divided by 3 (the number of categories) = 31.60% average chance of winning.

Cena = 91.66 (face winning a main event odds) + 41.665 (split odds of capturing gold) + 44.95 (split challengers odds in a triple threat) = 178.275… divided by 3 (the number of categories) = 52.43% average chance of winning.

In Other Words: Edge and Cena have two of the strongest WrestleMania win/loss records in the history of WWE. Should this match be given the show-ending slot on the card, however, Edge’s past success at WrestleMania matches is about the only stat working in his favor. Amazingly, Cena’s odds of winning a main event match at WrestleMania are actually higher than his odds of winning a title match elsewhere on the show.

If John Cena vs. Edge DOES NOT GO ON LAST…

1. Edge (defending World Champ) has a 16.66% chance of victory, while Big Show and Cena (World Title challenger)’s split the remaining odds of an 83.33% chance to win.
2. Only one champion has ever retained gold in a top title match contested under triple threat rules at WrestleMania, meaning that Edge (the defending champion) has a mere 11.11% chance of retaining, while Show and Cena’s combined odds of walking away a new champion total a staggering 89.89%
3. Edge (71.43% win/loss ratio in past WM matches) odds of winning are just shy of Cena’s (80% at WM). Big Show trails behind both men by a considerable margin, having amassed a WrestleMania win/loss record of 1-7 (12.5%).

Note: Averaging each man’s odds of victory (by combining their unique likelihood of winning in each of the three aforementioned trends and then dividing by three), Edge’s odds of retaining are 33.07%, while Show’s odds of victory are 33.04%, and Cena’s odds of picking up a victory are 55.54%.